They Promised Us Five Years. Now They Are Moving the Goalposts.

UK immigration. ILR. Five year route. Ten year route. Settlement delay. Home Office reforms. Earned settlement. Migrant workers in Britain.

I have been thinking about this for weeks.

About the quiet way the UK government is trying to rewrite a promise that thousands of people built their lives around.

When many of us came to this country, we did not come illegally. We did not cut corners. We followed the rules. We paid the fees. We renewed visas. We paid taxes. We worked long shifts. We stayed out of trouble.

We were told something simple.

Five years.

Work hard. Stay lawful. Contribute.

And you can settle.

Now suddenly, that promise is being questioned.

Ten years.

Maybe fifteen.

Maybe more.

Maybe forever.

And nobody in power seems to understand what that does to real people.

This is not policy reform.

This feels like betrayal.

A Deal Was Made. Now It Is Being Rewritten.

Immigration is not charity.

It is a contract.

The UK needed workers.

In hospitals.

In care homes.

In IT.

In transport.

In universities.

In businesses.

So it opened legal routes and said:

Come. Work. Build. Pay.

And after five years, you belong.

People believed that.

They sold property back home.

They moved families.

They delayed weddings.

They postponed having children.

They built everything around that timeline.

Now the Home Office is debating whether that timeline should be doubled.

Without apology.

Without accountability.

Without clarity.

How is that fair?

Case Study One. Grace. A Care Worker Who Has Not Seen Home in Seven Years.

Grace came from Nigeria in 2019.

She works in a care home in the Midlands.

She does twelve hour shifts.

She washes, feeds, comforts, and holds dying patients.

She works weekends and nights.

During Covid, she slept in staff accommodation so she would not infect residents.

She missed her father’s funeral.

She missed her sister’s wedding.

She has not been home in seven years.

Why?

Because she was counting down to settlement.

Five years.

That was the deal.

She planned to apply in 2024.

Now she is being told it might take ten.

Maybe more.

She told me:

“I feel like I have been working for a moving finish line.”

She is tired.

And she is thinking of leaving.

The White Paper Tells the Real Story

The government’s immigration White Paper talks about “earned settlement.”

It sounds reasonable.

It sounds fair.

But read it properly.

It means:

Longer waiting time.

More fees.

More paperwork.

More conditions.

More rejection risk.

For many migrants, settlement now looks like ten years.

For care workers and lower paid sectors, it could stretch towards fifteen.

That is not encouragement.

That is indefinite probation.

Case Study Two. Ahmed. An IT Specialist Trapped in Temporary Status.

Ahmed works in cybersecurity in London.

He earns well.

He pays high tax.

He mentors graduates.

He volunteers.

He came on a skilled worker visa in 2020.

He planned to buy a flat in 2025.

He delayed marriage until he got ILR.

Now everything is on hold.

No mortgage.

No stability.

No certainty.

Banks ask about residency.

Employers ask about visa timelines.

Every decision is filtered through immigration status.

He said:

“I feel successful on paper but insecure in real life.”

So he has started applying to Canada.

MPs Are Warning Them. They Are Not Listening.

This is not just campaigners.

Members of Parliament have warned the government.

In debates, MPs have said:

You cannot change rules halfway.

You cannot punish compliance.

You cannot rewrite contracts.

Some called it unfair.

Some called it cruel.

Some called it reckless.

Still, there is no legal guarantee for those already here.

Only vague language.

Only political silence.

Case Study Three. Mei and Daniel. A Family Living in Limbo.

Mei came to the UK from Hong Kong in 2021 under the BN O route.

Her husband Daniel followed.

They have two children.

They rent a small house in Kent.

They both work.

They pay council tax.

They volunteer at church.

They help neighbours.

They planned to settle in 2026.

Now they do not know.

If settlement is delayed, their children’s futures change.

University fees.

Student loans.

Citizenship rights.

Everything becomes uncertain.

Mei said:

“How do you tell your child they might not belong here after growing up here?”

The Numbers They Do Not Want You to Look At

This debate is often framed as political.

But the data tells a different story.

A story of economic risk, labour shortages, and self sabotage.

 1. Overseas Workers Are Holding Up Key UK Sectors

According to the UK Office for National Statistics and NHS Workforce Data:

Over 30 percent of NHS doctors

Around 25 percent of nurses

More than 40 percent of social care workers in some regions

Were born outside the UK.

In London and the Midlands, it is even higher.

Without migrant labour, hospitals and care homes simply do not function.

Chart 1: Percentage of Overseas Born Workers by Sector

Healthcare: ~33%

Social Care: ~40%

IT and Tech: ~28%

Hospitality: ~22%

Construction: ~15%

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey, NHS Digital

2. Visa and Settlement Fees Have Already Exploded

Since 2018, visa and settlement costs have risen sharply.

Typical migrant family costs today:

Skilled Worker Visa (5 years): £12,000+

ILR Application: £2,885 per person

Citizenship: £1,630 per person

A family of four can now pay over £20,000 before becoming citizens.

And now they are being told:

Pay more.

Wait longer.

Chart 2: Cost of Settlement Over Time

2015: ~£5,000 average

2020: ~£9,000

2025: ~£15,000 to £20,000+

Source: Home Office Fee Tables

3. Countries With Faster Settlement Attract More Talent

OECD migration data shows:

Canada: PR in 3 to 5 years

Australia: PR in 4 years

Germany: PR in 3 to 5 years

UK (proposed): 10 to 15 years

Result:

Canada and Australia are gaining skilled workers.

UK is losing them.

Chart 3: Average Years to Permanent Residency

Canada: 3 to 5

Australia: 4

Germany: 3 to 5

UK (proposed): 10+

4. Employers Are Already Warning of Retention Collapse

 According to British Chambers of Commerce surveys:

Over 60 percent of firms report recruitment difficulties

Over 40 percent say immigration rules hurt retention

Care sector vacancy rate: over 9 percent nationally

Delaying settlement makes this worse.

People do not stay where they feel unwanted.

What This Does to Real Lives

Temporary status means temporary life. 

No long term investments.

No security.

No peace.

It traps people in bad jobs.

It increases exploitation.

It damages mental health.

It keeps families in survival mode.

You cannot build roots in moving sand.

This Will Hurt the UK Too

This policy is not tough.

 It is weak.

 It drives talent away.

Canada is recruiting.

Australia is recruiting.

Germany is recruiting.

 The UK is discouraging.

Care homes already struggle.

Hospitals already rely on overseas staff.

Businesses already face shortages.

Delay settlement and you lose people.

Simple.

The Most Important Question Nobody Is Answering

Will people who came under the five year promise be protected?

Yes or no.

That is all that matters.

If yes, put it in law.

If no, admit it.

Until then, thousands live in anxiety.

Why This Feels Personal

This is about dignity.

It is about whether effort is rewarded.

It is about whether Britain keeps its word.

Trust once broken is hard to rebuild.

If This Passes, It Changes Everything

 It sends a message:

No promise is permanent.

No rule is safe.

No loyalty is returned.

People stop believing.

And when belief goes, systems collapse quietly.

Final Thought

This debate is not about borders.

It is about integrity.

Five years was the promise.

Anything else, without protection for those already here, is betrayal.

No spin can change that.

Streetly Insights

Josh